Briefing Paper for Canadian Government on Ecological and Economic Urgencies of Global Warming.

ECOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC URGENGIES OF GLOBAL WARMING

This ‘Briefing Paper on the Ecological and Economic Urgencies of Global Warming’ has been prepared to convey to all parties in the Canadian government, as well as policy makers everywhere, the extreme environmental emergency we are facing and how solutions to this can be linked to successful economic solutions to the current economic crisis.  It includes major threats caused by global climatic disruption and our demands on the planet, as well as the economic considerations and advantages of addressing these urgencies in concert with assuring a healthy economy.

The main purpose of this paper is to inform.  It is a compilation of critical information from current and reliable resources, from which urgent needs and appropriate direction should be evident.

Excerpts from the original sources have been included in the References and Excerpts section, making this document an inclusive resource to a vast amount of information on ecological and economical issues relating to global warming. We intend to make frequent updates as required.

“Increased CO2 emissions anywhere are a threat to the integrity of this planet’s climate balance everywhere.”
Al Gore at the UN Climate Change Conference,
December 2008

“We already probably have CO2 past the tipping level that would cause some effects like the loss of arctic sea ice … But we haven’t passed the point of no return.”
James E. Hansen at the American Geophysical Union meeting,
December 2008

Produced by West Coast Climate Equity
Lead author, Michelle Mech
Revised, 18 January 2009

Direct link to article: http://westcoastclimateequity.org/?p=1519
Direct link to References and Excerpts: http://westcoastclimateequity.org/?p=1459

Click here to read the List of References and Excerpts for this paper.

The Ecological Urgency of Global Warming

On average surface temperature:

Global warming should be limited to less than 2ºC relative to pre-industrial times.  [1]

• Global-average surface temperature has already risen 0.8ºC above pre-industrial levels, with the last three decades accounting for 0.53ºC of this warming.  [2]
• Warming in the pipeline today because of fast feedbacks from ocean thermal inertia will increase global temperatures an additional 0.6ºC.  Past emissions have already committed us to 1.4ºC above pre-industrial times, thus providing little room or time to prevent reaching the estimated “tipping point” of 2ºC.
• A further 1.4ºC warming is still to come from slow surface albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks, specifically ice sheet disintegration and vegetation change, even if we stop increasing greenhouse gas emissions immediately.  Therefore, if we don’t find ways to quickly lower atmospheric CO2, we can expect global temperatures to rise as high as 2.8ºC (0.8 + 0.6 + 1.4) above pre-industrial times. [3]
• If we continue ‘business as usual’, climate projections show that global temperature could rise as high as 7°C above pre-industrial times by 2100.  [4]

On the level of atmospheric CO2 in parts per million (ppm):

• The CO2 level in the atmosphere now stands at 387 parts per million (ppm), and is rising at an annual rate of 2.1 ppm [5].
• Evidence indicates that “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350 ppm.” [6]
• Fossil fuel CO2 emissions could stay in the atmosphere for centuries and 25% could last essentially forever. To avoid the most catastrophic effects of climate change, we need to move to zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, and to draw down atmospheric CO2 to 350 ppm or less as soon as possible. To restore sea ice, atmospheric CO2 must be lowered to below 325 ppm. [7]

On the loss of Arctic and glacial ice:

• The Arctic is warming at two to three times the overall global rate of temperate increase. [8]
• Summer sea ice in the Arctic shrank to its smallest area on record in September 2007 and scientists say it could disappear by 2013. [9] More than 80% of the mass of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean in summer has already been lost. [14]
• The Polar Ice Cap is crucial for the preservation of Greenland’s glaciers and ice cap. Its melting will speed the melting of Greenland’s ice to such an extent that we will likely see millions of people displaced by sea level rise in this century.
• If we allow the Earth’s land-based glaciers and ice sheets to melt, it will take many thousands of years for them to refreeze. However, to refreeze the floating polar ice would take only a fraction of that time. [10]
• Continental glaciers all over the world are continuously melting away, leading to massive threats to water availability, food production, and hydropower generation. [11]
• It is estimated that 98.2 gigatonnes of the approximately 160 gigatonnes of carbon that is stored in the entire Arctic is in the soils of the North American Arctic tundra. Because the northern permafrost region extends well beyond the area of arctic tundra, it is also estimated that organic carbon content in all permafrost soils to 3m depth is 1024 gigatonnes, 30-35% more carbon than is present in our atmosphere. Melting permafrost could trigger a worldwide disaster. [12]
• Scientists have discovered numerous areas in the Siberian Shelf where large quantities of methane  are rising from the ocean floor, creating “whole clouds of bubbles on the surface of the water.” Methane has 25 times the heat-trapping power of carbon dioxide over 100 years; 72 times as much over 20 years. Should the Siberian Shelf’s permafrost layer thaw, the methane content of the planet’s atmosphere would increase twelve-fold, causing drastic acceleration of global warming and possibly ‘runaway global warming.’ [13]The Arctic sea ice must be restored to its normal extent as fast as possible. [14]

On increasing desertification and longer droughts:

• Because the climate crisis has increased the rate of soil moisture evaporation and shifted rainfall periods and seasons, desertification is increasing and longer droughts are occurring.
• The U.N. estimates more than 250 million people are directly affected by desertification and approximately one billion in over 100 countries are at risk.  [15]

On the effect of rising levels of carbon dioxide on the world’s oceans:

• Increasing ocean acidification is threatening marine organisms by reducing their ability to extract calcium carbonate for their shells (like mussels) or skeletons (like corals).
• Ocean warming is directly reducing coral cover through coral bleaching, and indirectly though magnifying the effects of infectious diseases.  Forecast models indicate that mass bleaching will happen nearly every summer by 2030.
• Acidification of oceans may well be the most insidious and pervasive threat to life in the oceans everywhere, simply because so many different plants and animals that play key roles in ecosystems will likely be affected.  For example, large ‘dead zones’, once thriving with diverse sea life and now devoid of it except for microbes, have already appeared along outer coasts like Oregon and Washington.  [16]

On the risk of extinction of well over a million species:

• Climate change now represents at least as great a threat to the number of species surviving on Earth as habitat-destruction and modification.
• 15 to 37% of all species could be driven extinct between now and 2050, if global warming continues unabated. If global temperatures exceed 3.3ºC warming beyond today’s temperatures, the IPCC’s best estimate is that between 40% and 70% of the world’s species become extinct.
• We have already begun to see abrupt threshold changes in ecosystems.  For example, the evergreen forests in North America and Europe are experiencing major tree mortality as longer summers tilt the balance against the trees in favour of mountain pine and spruce bark beetles.  [17]

On the widespread risks of food security:

• With growing season temperatures in excess of the hottest years on record for many countries, stress on crops and livestock will become global in character, as it will be extremely difficult to balance food deficits in one part of the world with food surpluses in another.  Some countries are already curbing exports to ensure their own supplies.
• Tropical countries will be the first to experience unprecedented heat stress because of global climate change, but by the end of the century, temperate countries, including North America, will likely experience unprecedented seasonal average temperatures, and the future for agriculture in these regions will become equally daunting.
• According to the 2008 Global Hunger Index, 33 countries are showing alarming levels of hunger and close to one billion people suffer from chronic hunger.  Failing to take measures to address glacial melting, desertification, land degradation and drought threats will have a severe impact on food and water security.
• The security implications of the food crisis should not be underestimated.  Food riots are already being reported across the globe and rising food prices could spark worldwide unrest and threaten political stability.  [18]

Major contributors to global warming:

• Coal for electricity and hydrocarbons for transportation contribute approximately 40% of CO2 emissions globally.
• The total global contribution of agriculture represents up to 32% of all global human-induced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, including land use changes. The livestock sector is a major player, responsible for 18%, a higher share than transport. This sector also:
  -  is the single largest anthropogenic user of land, accounting for 70% of all agricultural land and 30% of the land surface of the planet, making huge incursions on wildlife habitat;
  -  accounts for over 8% of global human water use and is the largest source of water pollution;
  -  accounts for about 20% of the total terrestrial animal biomass. [19]
• Deforestation is responsible for up to 20%  of global carbon emissions worldwide and in many tropical countries is the largest emitter. In the next 24 hours, deforestation will release as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to New York. Plans to combat climate change must address deforestation. “If we lose forests, we lose the fight against climate change.” [20]

The Economic Urgency of Global Warming

A:  Canada should act aggressively and expeditiously on climate change

• The bold steps that are needed to solve the climate crisis include many of the same steps that should to be taken in order to solve the economic crisis. Unless we tackle them together we may fail on both. [1]
• The foundations for most of our economic models have their root in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, when there was a seemingly endless supply of natural resources and no threat of climate disruption.   The financial crisis has given the world a great opportunity to overhaul the economy and the way we think about the economy – to transform economic development, consumer behaviour, people’s lifestyles, and the structure of the economy and industry.  (Xie Zhenhua, vice director of China’s National Development and Reform Commission)
• If measures that focus on developing renewable sources of energy are supported by strong and vigorous government policies, they can be a new driving force for economic development. [2]
• The costs of inaction far outweigh the costs of action, and each year we fail to act, mitigation gets harder and more costly. In 2006, Nicholas Stern warned that 1% of global GDP is required to be invested in order to mitigate the effects of climate change, while the economic costs of failing to act could amount to up to 20% of global GDP. Now Stern estimates the costs of mitigation have doubled, to 2% of global GDP. [3]
• Arguments about the expense of acting now fall apart when weighed against the loss of human life and the extinction of 40% to 70% of all species. An immediate and progressive switch to technologies that produce little or no new greenhouse gases, combined with active removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, could save a million or more species from extinction.  [4]
• Both the public and many business leaders are ready for a change: In Canada, the Canadian Council of Chief Executives (CCCE) has called for a national plan to deal with global warming, and views curbing global warming as an economic opportunity. Worldwide, leaders from one hundred and fifty of the world’s largest companies issued The Bali Communique, calling for a comprehensive, legally binding United Nations framework to tackle climate change.

With the anticipated economic changes in the United States, [5] Canada needs to move to a green economy as soon as possible so as not to lose out on potential business and job opportunities.

• The Presidential Climate Action Plan, developed by a prestigious National Advisory Committee, was finalized on November 13, 2008, and provides a comprehensive set of action options in the areas of global warming, energy, stewardship, and international leadership for President Obama’s first 100 days in office. These include creating 5 million new green jobs and taking the lead in renewables. [6]
• Al Gore has called on President-elect Barack Obama to set a national goal of getting 100 percent of America’s electricity from renewable and non-carbon sources within a decade. Obama recently pledged to double the production of alternative energy in the next three years. [7]
• Renewable energy and energy efficiency industries already generate 8.5 million jobs and nearly $1 trillion in revenue in the U.S., and could grow to as many as 40 million jobs by 2030, generating up to $4.5 trillion in revenue. [8]
• The U.S. Department of Energy reports that project investments in renewable energy technologies reached more than $13 billion in 2007. The eight-year extension of the federal solar tax credit (2008) is estimated to result in $232 billion in new investment in the solar industry by 2016. [6]
• There could be a fivefold increase in green jobs in the U.S. within the next two decades through investment in renewable energy sources. [9] The production of wind, solar (including solar thermal), and/or geothermal power is expanding at a breakneck pace in many states, some with planned projections to produce excess energy to export. [10]

B: Why it makes sense economically

• A country that becomes a leader in new energy technology will improve its chances of having a stable economy, and increase its international influence. [11]
• “Green” investments, on average, create more than twice as many jobs per dollar invested as traditional fossil fuel-based generating technologies. [12]
• The United Nations reports renewable energy investments are expected to reach $450 billion annually between now and 2012, and more than $600 billion annually from 2020 to 2030. The global market for environmental products and services is expected to double to $2.74 trillion by the end of the next decade. [6]
• Globally-available wind power over land is five times the world’s total power production and 20 times the world’s electric power production. In one hour, enough sunlight falls on the earth to supply the energy needs of everyone on the planet for an entire year. [13]

C: Areas of immediate and major concern

• The pace at which action is being taken in Canada and the rest of the world does not reflect the urgency of the threat of climate change. [14]
• There are too many links between energy companies and the government, and too much monopolization of the energy supply by large companies. Together these are barriers to optimum renewable energy legislation. [15]
• The Canadian government’s recent strategies have focused on setting carbon emission reduction goals for the long term, (2025, 2050), while creating the impression that they are not expecting the goals to be reached. The government’s use of carbon intensity targets instead of the Kyoto norm of carbon emission reduction targets moves the goal-posts even farther away from where they need to be, and weigh the scales too heavily in favour of conventional versus renewable energy, not to mention a less than subtle commitment to failure. [16]
• Green employers can’t find the trained green-collar workers they require. [17]
• An overstressed and inefficient national electrical grid can’t accommodate new kinds of power, and often existing rules impede access by innovators to national markets. A high voltage DC transmission network is an immediate need. [18]
• In 2002 people around the world harvested 11.7 million tons of shellfish, representing a value of 10.5 billion dollars.  Increasing ocean acidification is threatening the survival of these species, which will have not only an impact on biodiversity and the survival of marine ecosystems, but also a large economic and financial impact.  [19]
• Bio-fuels must not displace food crops, since this threatens food security for the world’s poor, and must not compromise the integrity of critical ecosystems and carbon sinks, particularly tropical forests which are often sacrificed for fuel crops. Bio-fuel production from food crops is already having an adverse effect on land and food prices worldwide. [20]
• In May 2008, the House of Commons passed a bill that will implement a national Renewable Fuel Standard, requiring ethanol and biodiesel blended transportation fuels in Canada. Corn used for ethanol production is forecast to increase by 34% and Canada’s ethanol production is expected to triple, to over 650 million litres per year, by 2010. Many new plants are planned or under construction. The true net carbon costs of these strategies have not been calculated, and in some cases are likely to exceed any gain. [21]
• Destruction of rainforests for conversion to soy farms in the Amazon basin has been directly related to the decline in US soy production because of the substitution of corn for ethanol production. A recent study revealed that over a 30-year period, after taking into account expected worldwide land-use changes, corn-based ethanol will increase greenhouse gases by 93% compared to gasoline, instead of reducing them by 20%. [22]
• “Clean coal” is still an oxymoron – at the present time, clean coal technology is little more than a marketing tool of the coal industry. Current coal plant designs cannot cost-effectively capture carbon dioxide, and to do so would cost much more than renewables. [23]
• The federal government has given billions of dollars in tax breaks to Canada’s oil and gas corporations. [24]
• The Alberta Tar Sands are the largest fossil fuel project on the planet, and Canada’s single largest contributor to greenhouse gas emissions growth. Production of a barrel of oil from the Tar Sands emits three times more greenhouse gases than producing a barrel of conventional oil, making it some of the dirtiest oil on the planet. [25]
• The world’s forests store 283 gigatonnes of carbon in their biomass alone, and about one trillion tonnes when deadwood, litter and soil are also considered, yet one and one-half acres of rainforest are lost every second. [26]
• If our demands on the planet continue to increase at the same rate, by the mid-2030s we would need the equivalent of two planets to maintain our lifestyles, and more than four planets if everyone lived the way we in Canada do. [27]

D: Countries that are in the lead on renewable energies, sustainability and greenhouse gas emission reductions

• In 1991 the Swedes enacted a carbon tax, which is now up to $150 a tonne.  Emissions have decreased by nearly 9% from 1990 levels and the economy grew by 44% between 1990 and 2006, making it the world’s 8th richest by GDP.  Denmark recorded a 15% drop in emissions after the 1992 adoption of a carbon tax, while posting a strong economic record.  [28]
• Germany’s Renewable Energy Sources Act, which requires utilites to buy electricity from renewable sources at premiuim rates, has transformed Germany’s renewable-power business into an industrial behemoth. It now generates about $240-billion in annual revenues and employs a quarter-million Germans. [29]
• The Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and European Union have run and updated green plans since the late 1980s or early 1990s (Details on each country listed in references/excerpts). Three important concepts are:
  1. An integrated, comprehensive approach, embracing all environmental and resource issues, across media and geographical boundaries, so that no one effort undermines another;
  2. Long-term, bipartisan commitments, which give business a large degree of certainty about long-term environmental policy – allowing them to make investments in pollution prevention technologies with more confidence; and
  3. Involvement of the public and NGOs in the planning stages, which gains their support throughout the plan’s implementation. [30]
• Norway has pledged $1 billion to Brazil’s Amazon Fund to help reduce deforestation of the Amazon rainforest. [31]

E:  Recommendations, potential initiatives, opportunities

• German MP Hermann Scheer has called on Canada to make a wholesale switch to 100% renewables and eliminate fossil fuels from electricity generation within a decade. We can do this by adopting a radically decentralized electricity system, powered primarily by wind turbines and hydroelectric plants. [32]
• Canadian climatologist Andrew Weaver has called for sustained 90% global carbon emissions reductions by 2050, relative to 1990, as well as direct CO2 capture from the air and subsequent sequestration, to reduce CO2 levels to below 350 ppm. The latter challenge offers research and development opportunities in which Canada could participate. [33]
• Forests offer the single largest opportunity for cost-effective and immediate reductions of carbon emissions. [34]
• Canada should play an active, constructive role in reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in the developing world.  Commission’s REDD strategy proposes that the future global climate agreement should aim to reduce the total forested area lost in the tropics by at least half of current levels by 2020, and then to halt global forest cover loss completely by 2030 at the latest. [35]
• The livestock sector has such deep and wide-ranging environmental impacts that it should rank as one of the leading focuses for environmental policy: efforts here can product large and multiple payoffs. With meat production (red and poultry) responsible for 18% of humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions (FAO report 2006), a reduction in meat consumption would greatly reduce agricultural GHG emissions. [36]
• Changes must also end our habit of living in “ecological overdraft”. Any economic system that fails to recognize environmental limits will ultimately fail. [37]
• Humanity is already at or beyond the point where economic growth is counterproductive.  We need to rethink and restructure our economy before nature restructures it for us.  [38]
• The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) will act as a driver for renewable energy on an international level, with the support of Germany, Spain, Denmark and more than 50 other nations.  Its founding conference is scheduled for 26, 27 January 2009 in Bonn, Germany, with interested countries invited to attend.  [39]

SUMMARY OF MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS

At this time of economic rebuilding, a new paradigm of what constitutes a successful economy needs to be considered; one which factors in ecological costs and long-term ecological impacts; an economy that embraces the responsibility of stewardship; an economy that adapts to the biophysical reality and ensures that we live sustainably and equitably with all the other organisms with which we share the planet.  If we continue investing time and resources in life-support for the old economy, we will condemn the nation to a future of international resource conflicts, severe loss of biodiversity, and the catastrophic consequences of unmitigated global climate change [1].

If we hope to ensure the safety and integrity or our country, we need to commit to immediate and substantial short-term goals and actions as well as substantive, long-term goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  Every step taken to solve the economic crisis needs to take into account the climate crisis.  Every decision should be viewed through an ecological lens and any stimulation efforts and business decisions should be directed towards sustainability.

Both the climate crisis and the economic crisis must be approached with a non-partisan perspective to achieve long-term success.  Business and the public must also be engaged to make the necessary transition successful, and to accomplish it at an unprecedented speed.

Reversing global warming is a task of epic proportions, equivalent to fighting the biggest war the world’s civilization has ever faced.  And it is at times of war, or at times of great natural disasters, that courageous, strong governments and leaders have, in the past, directed the economy to produce what is needed efficiently and effectively, in order to overcome adversity.  To effect successful mitigation efforts, Canada must join with other governments throughout the world, in recognizing this threat of climate disruption for what it is, and respond expediently and appropriately to what science has made evident.  How quickly we act will determine the quality of life of our children and future generations.

“We have to have compulsory policies. . . This is a time for politicians not to play politics and to get behind this and say we support this thing, let’s make it happen.”
Mark Jaccard, author and professor of Environmental Economics

“What we need is comparable to the mobilization for World War Two.  We are talking about radical, fundamental changes over a period of a few decades.  People have to realize the enormity and magnitude of the effort that is going to be needed to turn this around.”
Danny Harvey, climate specialist at the University of Toronto and IPCC contributor

“Once the process of change begins, once the momentum shifts, once the decisions are arrived at, then the task often becomes easier in the doing.  As we start making these changes we will see that they do strengthen our economies, they do create millions of new jobs and they do improve the standard of living.”
Al Gore speaking at UN Climate Change Conference in Poznan, Poland

Michelle Mech (lead author), West Coast Climate Equity, 26 November 2008, rev.18 January 2009

[1] Presidential Climate Action Plan, 13 November 2008, http://www.climateactionproject.com

Click here to read the List of References and Excerpts for this paper.